Nickel Forecast

By Stan Park

As an exceptionally versatile metal, nickel enjoys a special place in the industrial world. With its lustrous, silvery-white appearance, low thermal and electrical conductivities, high resistance to corrosion and oxidation, excellent strength and toughness at higher temperatures, ability to be magnetized, and a melting point of 1453 C, nickel is not only attractive and durable in its own pure form; it also readily alloys with many other metals.

Nickel is readily recognized in coins, where it is used by many countries in both pure and alloy forms, and as bright and durable electrolytically-applied nickel plating coatings on steel. Its primary use, however, is as an alloying component with chromium and other metals in the production of stainless and heat-resistant steel used not only in industry and construction, but also for household products such as pots and pans, kitchen sinks, and other everyday items. Stainless steel is produced in a wide range of compositions to meet industry requirements for corrosion and heat resistance, and also to facilitate a clean and hygienic surface for food and other processing.

About 65% of nickel is used to manufacture stainless steel. Around 20% is used in other steel and non-ferrous alloys, often for specialized industrial, aerospace and military applications. About 9% is used in plating, while 6% in used in other applications, including coins and a variety of nickel chemicals.

As the emerging middle class in countries such as China and other Asian nations demand more stainless steel products from sinks to door handles, nickel consumption is on the rise. Stainless steel currently accounts for about two-thirds of nickel consumption up from one-third in the past three decades. While nickel demand in Europe and the Americas decreased in the period from 1997-2002, this demand increased in Asia and the former East Bloc countries.

Chinese nickel consumption increased by 15.4% in 2005, slightly less than the 19.1% growth reported in 2004. Chinese consumption during this decade has actually been the single largest factor impacting the nickel market, with supply struggling to keep pace with this rising demand due to a physical shortage of the metal. In fact, China recently announced a cut-back in stainless steel production because they are unable to source enough nickel.

This rising demand and limited supply is pushing up prices. As of July 2006, nickel was trading at over $12.00US per pound in contrast to historical prices of less than $5.00US over the previous 15 years. Experts predict that this continued high demand based not only on China ‘s continuing economic boom but also on the West’s demand for hygiene, will continue for the foreseeable future.

Only about 1.3 million tons of new or primary nickel are produced and consumed annually, compared with over 15 million tons of copper and nearly 800 million tons of steel. The growing world economy through the mid-nineties triggered an expansionary drive in nickel capacity by existing manufacturers resulting in a production increase of 30% in the five year period from 1993-1998. European expansion in both Finland and the United Kingdom accounted for most of the 48% (60,000 ton) increase in production, while expanded production in Australia and New Caledonia accounted for all of the 39% (35,000 ton) increase in Oceania . Japan accounted for most of the 22% increase in production in Asia during that same period.

The rising demand for nickel production , with its associated high commodity prices, has spawned new approaches to nickel production. Historically, most sulfide nickel ore bodies are mined underground at relatively low production rates and with mining costs that can approach $20 per ton, or even more. The current lack of high grade nickel sulfide exploration targets has more recently shifted attention to laterite nickel deposits, which can be mined at low cost using modern mining and process methods that recover ore at grades well below those that had traditionally been exploited. These new methods are changing the way large mining companies and knowledgeable investors are looking at mineral properties.

The trend began in the 1960’s with copper projects going from smaller underground operations, often with grades exceeding 2% to larger low grade projects with

grades that could be less than 0.5%. By the 1970’s the bulk mining of other low grade metals was advancing, most notably gold using new hydrometallurgical techniques at grades well below those that had traditionally been exploited. It may now be nickel’s turn to benefit from this approach. Historically most sulfide nickel ore bodies have had grades of 1% to 2% Ni, mined underground at relatively low production rates and with high operating costs. Laterite nickel deposits can be bulk mined, but the nickel can’t be concentrated, so that both capital and operating costs are typically higher than sulfide projects. As a result major mining companies are not necessarily looking for high grades, but rather for large tonnage potential that can be shown to be economically attractive.

One example of low grade sulphide nickel deposits is Hard Creek Nickel Corporation’s (HNC) 100% owned Turnagain Project located near Dease Lake , BC , Canada . Turnagain’s nickel grades, low by traditional standards, show exciting potential if treated with newly developed process technology, and a bulk tonnage open pit mining approach. At Turnagain, early stage process studies carried out by several independent and well recognized mineral industry testing laboratories suggest that there are promising opportunities to recover metal on site, at a high production rate, for an excellent financial return on the necessary capital investment for equipment, steel, cement, energy, labor and other costs, while nickel is priced at historical levels.

In a Preliminary Assessment recently prepared by AMEC Americas Limited (AMEC), one of the top three international mine engineering design firms, a 50,000 tonne per day milling operation by Hard Creek Nickel at Turnagain is modeled with a 17 year mine life that is predicted to produce a total of 833 million pounds of nickel, 57 million pounds of cobalt and 85 million pounds of copper over the life of the mine, representing the largest new nickel deposit in Canada. There are very few similar low-grade nickel projects in the world.

Hard Creek Nickel plays a vital role in the Canadian Mining Industry , which employs 370,000 Canadians, representing 235 major mines, and accounts for over 4% of the national Gross Domestic Product. With annual wages of $17.38 billion, the Canadian mining industry provides a market to 2,200 suppliers of goods and services and invests about $300 million in annual R&D expenditures.

About the Author: Stanley Park is a business development consultant, speaker, author, and copywriter. With 15 years experience in Business Marketing Management program. He is also a technical writer for

Netsplorer.com

News syndication and RSS feed aggregator. He spearheaded the online marketing program for

Stockmat.com

with a successs ratio of over 52 million hits in the month of August 2005.

Source:

isnare.com

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